Competition Reform and Household Welfare: A Microsimulation Analysis of the Telecommunication Sector in Ethiopia

This paper presents a novel method for estimating the likely welfare effects of competition reforms both current and new consumers. Using household budget survey data 2015/16 Ethiopia assuming reform scenario that dilutes market share state-owned monopoly to 45 percent, model predicts 25.3 percent reduction in price mobile services an increase 4.6 million users. would generate gain 1.37 among all Poverty rates are expected decline by 0.31 percentage points, driven 0.22 points consumers 0.09 Inequality 0.23 Gini since better off more reap benefits greater competition. represents powerful tool supporting analysis developing countries, particularly sectors known excluding significant segments population due high consumer prices.